At this point it's pretty much a tradition that the Royal Rumble "poster" feature a bunch of guys from the entire roster, most of whom have no hope of winning the match and headlining WrestleMania. It's a simple way of reminding everyone of the titular match's basic premise in a way that harkens back to the old "anything can happen" slogan. On a simpler level it gives the posters a bit of variety by featuring guys who'd otherwise never make it onto them.
This year that tradition has been sidestepped. Instead of
twenty- or thirty-odd names we have Roman Reigns, WWE world title belt slung
over his shoulder and a smouldering pout playing on his lips. This vision keeps
Reigns strong, always a priority for WWE these days, but it also makes it tough
to predict anyone but him winning the Rumble.
And it's at this point that I acknowledge that, yes,
Reigns is the champ. Yes, the champ doesn't usually fight in the Rumble, what
with the winner of the Rumble being awarded a world title shot at WrestleMania
and all. This year that's been changed. The match is no longer for the right to
challenge for the title, it's for the title.
In reality I imagine this has been done to keep the
product lovely and interesting. If that's the case it's a move that's failed.
WWE has become so dry and tiresome to watch that it's going to take a concerted
long term plan and a great deal of effort to bring about the changes needed.
Quick hits like altering the purpose of the Rumble or booking a Brock Lesnar
appearance aren't enough.
In kayfabe the change was made by Vince McMahon as part
of his feud with Roman Reigns. Because Roman won't conform to The Authority's
idea of what a champion should be they're determined to get the title off him
by stacking the deck against him. Sound familiar? It should. This is the format
WWE's been using to establish main event faces since it worked with Steve
Austin. The problem with it is obvious: Roman Reigns is not Austin. I don't
mean this in terms of promo skills, ring work or personality (although it
applies to all of them), I mean it in terms of character. The entire point of
Austin was that he hated how he'd been held down by the business in general and
the Mr McMahon character was the perfect foil for that.
Roman doesn't really have much of a character to speak
of. There's nothing for him to be bitter or frustrated about. He has very
obviously and openly been fast-tracked to the top of the company. He hasn't
overcome any major setbacks and he hasn't had the real life fight to get his
spot that Austin had. Which means presenting him as an underdog against
malicious ol' Vinnie Mac won't get anyone anywhere: people can't accept Roman
as the underdog we're told he is.
Because it's the established formula Roman seems like the
only possible winner. As the babyface champion who the heel authority figures
are out to screw over he is, ironically, the favourite to win. Because WWE's
top lads always overcome the odds. Got to let the kids know they can believe in
their heroes, right?
In fairness it's worth mentioning that had Reigns not
been added to the Rumble the match it would have been decidedly light on star
power (because he and someone else would have had a separate singles match).
Rollins, Cena and Orton are injured. Not many people would have wanted to see
the latter two win but they would have been credible contenders. That's what
you want with a match with thirty participants. In addition to them Cesaro is
injured. He wasn't going to win but he was popular enough to merit a lengthy
stay in the match.
I have other predictions for the Rumble match that don't
pertain to the winner. I expect the Wyatt clan will be responsible for Lesnar
being eliminated, possibly after he's mown through all or most of them (if it's
most then Bray will be the guy to survive). Kofi Kingston's annual "OMG
did you see how he survived elimination?!" spot will likely involve his
New Day tag partners. Maybe he'll stand on their shoulders or run across their
backs or Big E will catch him or something. AJ Styles will debut to a good
reaction because the Rumble is big enough to attract the sort of crowd that
will know who he is and care. I can see him lasting long enough to get all his
big moves in (though probs not the neck-breaking Styles Clash) before being
eliminated, something the crowd will loudly boo even though 'The Phenomenal
One' clearly isn't going to win the WWE world title on his first night in the
company. I'm also confident not enough will be done with the comedic potential
of Curtis Axel being in the Rumble.
The rest of the card is made up exclusively of title
matches, which seems somehow appropriate for what has become the second most
important card on the WWE calendar. Kevin Owens and Dean Ambrose will continue
their run of PPV singles outings with a Last Man Standing match. It's rare for
a stip like this to be busted out for the IC title these days. It's nice to see
here. It can only help restore some of the lustre that's been lost over the
years. It should also play to the brawl-heavy strengths of KO and 'The Lunatic
Fringe'. It could end up being the best entry in their feud. Either could win
because it feels like this is a rivalry of equals where either guy could win on
any night, but I'll pick Ambrose to retain because he's not had the title too
long.
Becky Lynch will challenge out-and-heel Charlotte 'Don't
Mention Her Surname' Flair. Everything here is set up for the two women to
succeed. Charlotte is playing the arrogant, snarky heel she's far better suited
to at this point in her career and Lynch is established in a plucky underdog
role, almost the main roster version of Bayley. They're more familiar with one
another than a lot of other combinations the women's division could throw up,
handy for the still-relatively-inexperienced 'Nature Girl'. And the setup of
the Rumble card means that they should get plenty of time to have a good match.
A Lynch victory isn't out of the question but I think
Charley retaining is far likelier. If WWE want her to be one of the key players
for the Divas scene for years to come she needs to be established as someone
who wins a lot. A lengthy first title reign wouldn't hurt there. She's
currently at three months and while that's not insignificant it's not anything
special either. A run until WrestleMania or beyond is what Charlotte needs to
set her up as a somebody.
The last two matches are Kalisto challenging Alberto Del
Rio for the United States championship and the Usos challenging New Day for the
tag championship. Kalisto had a one day reign a few weeks ago (three in TV
time) when he won the belt from ADR before losing it back ok SmackDown. Why he
lost it back so soon (or at all) is a bit of a mystery. Perhaps it was to make
things unpredictable. Whatever the reason I think Kalisto will get the belt
again here and keep it this time.
Match quality between Kalisto and 'The Essence of
Excellence' will be questionable. They've not clicked in previous meetings.
They'll need to switch things up to make a good impression here. The tag title
match, meanwhile, should be very good. New Day are always on form and the Usos
have become one of WWE's most reliable tandems. I don't want to see a title
switch but I think we might. New Day have had the belts since SummerSlam and I
suspect management will be itching to changes things for change's sake.
No matter how well the undercard matches do it's the
Rumble that will determine whether this show is remembered well or not. With it
looking about as predictable as the last two years' have (and let's pause for a
second and note that Roman Reigns has been involved in fan backlash in the
closing moments of the Rumble in both of those matches) I won't be getting my
hopes up on Sunday night.
***
Predictions
summary:
Roman Reigns to win the Royal Rumble and retain the WWE
championship Dean Ambrose to defeat Kevin Owens to retain the Intercontinental championship
Charlotte to defeat Becky Lynch to retain the Divas championship
The Usos to defeat New Day to win the tag team championship
Kalisto to defeat Alberto Del Rio for the United States championship
